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Does Next-Gen Phone's Success Hang on the Cool Factor? May 1, 2003 12:00 PM by Ernest Worthman Technology Editor eworthman@primediabusiness.com
I received an e-mail I recently with an article that eluded to the fact that the next generation of cell phones will succeed based on the “cool” factor. What exactly is the “cool” factor? I got on the phone to some old friends and asked them what they think would be “cool” in a phone. Now, understand that my friends and I are a few years younger than the generation that coined the term (I'm thinking the Annette Funichello and Frankie Avalon beach movie generation), but it was pretty popular back in my teenage years. And, luckily, I have a few friends that aren't relics, yet. Well, one thing for sure, technology has redefined the term “cool.” Today, my friends tell me cool means gadgetry. Clothes and cars aren't the cool makers they once were. Instant messaging and camera phones are. So, given that fact, why are we having such a hard time getting wireless to be the platform for cool? Truth is, the rest of the world is a lot farther up the track that we are. With few exceptions, the best we can offer are Wi-Fi hotspots at Starbucks (which my friends and I think is the ultimate cool). Perhaps that's one reason why this segment of the wireless industry is such a bright spot. If we take a look outside of the U.S., we find that, with few exceptions, wireless networks are much faster and more robust. Over the last couple of years, the anytime, anywhere, always on ubiquitous wireless communications bubble has burst. While there will always be a trade-off between mobility and quality, statistics tell us that 30 percent of all cell phone calls are unsuccessful. Six out of 10 subscribers have called their service providers to complain about service at least once in the last year — this price is more than most consumers are willing to pay for such a trade-off. The fact that cell phones are glorified radios and subject to all of the drawbacks of radio technology was glossed over by the players. So when the technology didn't deliver, users, quite naturally, lost confidence. One of my friends commented that all of these new services are simply a smoke screen to cover up the real issue — that the providers simply don't have the basics down, yet. Interesting observation — but it makes sense to me, and should make sense to the industry players. Now that won't keep them from advancing the technology and offering the latest and greatest, such as camera phones, streaming multimedia, wireless gaming (finally, a distraction for long restaurant lines and late airplanes — anyone for an online game of Dungeons and Dragons)? To coin the visionary entrepreneur Philippe Kahn: “we are at the edge of an evolving new era that will see an even greater mingling of wireless mobile devices into our everyday personal and business lives. And the acceptance of most of these new devices and services will be primarily driven by the ‘cool factor,’ or how slickly and effortlessly they integrate into our lives.” My gut feeling is that unless the industry gets a solid infrastructure going that users see as reliable and reasonably priced, these services are going to be hard sells, regardless of how cool they are. If we want to get a peek of what services are possible with a reliable infrastructure, we should look at what is happening in Europe and Asia. Services available there include the ability to download and view snippets of multimedia information in full color handheld wireless devices. For example, providers like Orange SA (www.orange.co.uk) — which supplies wireless services in both the U.K. and France — offer the ability to view video captured at sporting events by professional digitographers, or retrieve small streams of images taken for personal use. And Packet Video (www.packetvideo.com), a U.S. firm with substantial investments and installations of its software products outside the U.S. has also introduced a service in Hong Kong that allows subscribers to keep an eye on their homes by feeding a multimedia stream, via the Internet, to their mobile devices. Will these advanced services be available here? Of course, but the question is when. It really hinges on two major issues. The first (and most significant) is getting a reliable, ubiquitous infrastructure in place and getting users to see it that way. The second is getting the users to see the value in these additional services. Considering the “cool” factor is a driving force behind this wizardry, it seems that once the infrastructure issue is solved, the rest should be easy.
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