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Progress, or Lack of, for That Last Mile Nov 1, 2002 12:00 PM by Ernest Worthman Technology Editor eworthman@primediabusiness.com
In the days before the Internet, xG and GHz computers, the last mile wasn't much of a target of opportunity. Rather it was viewed as simply a communications link that could be filled only by wireless technology. And, in those days, the last mile meant a VHF or UHF (and some 800 MHz) short-haul licensed link that was designed to add telephone-like communications to areas that weren't served by landlines. There was no data, no Internet and no opportunity, perceived or otherwise. Furthermore, in some cases, it couldn't be provided at all. Somewhere, within the last 10 years or so, the last mile became a target of opportunity. And, like most targets of opportunity, it suffered from media hype, illusory technological promises, political footballing and various other smoke and mirror debauchery. Therefore, today's last mile is still largely an empty mile (even with modern cable and DSL). But one thing about it has changed. Today's last mile has taken on a new meaning. Today it is generally referred to as the connection to the curb from the provider's last point of control (like a telephone pole, cable box, wireless point of presence or a microwave link). And there is no lack of interest or debate about this new definition. Today, there are wireless carriers, cable companies, fiber-optic companies, telephone companies, even WiFi and Bluetooth technologists judiciously eyeballing this opportunity. But for a number of reasons, no one is sticking a neck out too far. Different reasons abound as to why, but quite simply, the bottom line is that no one has developed a sustainable business model that can provide a reasonable assurance of an ongoing revenue stream. First of all, there isn't much of a common infrastructure. Cable, copper and unlicensed wireless technologies all are vying for the last mile content and delivery system business — business that hasn't been well defined yet (yes, there have been cursory attempts to add upsteam to otherwise downstream-only systems). These same folks are protecting their turf like it is the goose that lays golden eggs and these folks aren't particularly good bedfellows. Furthermore, the killer app everyone is waiting for (it is broadband multimedia, isn't it?) hasn't materialized yet either (about as close as we can get is the Internet). Given these facts, and a myriad of others like interoperability among fundamentally differing technologies, interference within competing wireless technologies and just plain LOI (lack of interest), much of the discussion about the last mile is still discussion. One notable argument is that the developments in WiFi (802.11x) are priming the last mile pump. The higher data rates and frequency of the “g” specification as well as the added security layers and distance may be the sleeper. While the Goliaths slug it out, David may just be able to slip in, unnoticed. Of all of the activity going on in the wireless industry, the WiFi seems to have the most momentum. It is undergoing a number of revisions as well as expanding its original computer-centric infrastructure. It is employing some novel architectures such as the mesh technology. Mesh technology not only works within the traditional definition of a WiFi, but it adds an option where the box at one home provides high-speed data service to nearby homes for their high-speed data service as well (there is a pilot system using mesh technology on line in Tahoe, Nev.). There is a perception that wireless data-only systems will not be able to survive long term. The survivors will likely be those who find a way to work with wireless operators who provide voice services and are interested in providing data and/or multimedia services. Could it be that is the reason that T-Mobile (formerly VoiceStream Wireless) purchased MobileStar's assets? And is this why other wide-area wireless operators are taking a long, hard look at WiFi deployments? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to put two and two together here… WiFi is the up and coming golden child and the last mile is wide open. You do the math.
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