Recently I was sent a piece from a friend of mine that presented an interesting take on 3G. It was a story printed in the UK's Financial Times by Peter Martin, Financial Times' senior business columnist, on July 29^th. I think this is a topic that deserves serious consideration.

Martin writes, “It is time for the European telecommunications industry to think the unthinkable and abandon 3G — third-generation mobile telephony.” Martin further writes, “This [the demand and need for 3G] represents a complete misreading of the future. Instead, networks should abandon the dream that handsets will become mobile media terminals, with lucrative content and e-commerce revenues. In reality, the wireless business will be what it has always been: communication between individual customers.” Wow. That takes guts to say, especially in light of the big deal that make of 3G.

But, you have to have been on the moon… — Quite frankly, you'd have to have been totally out of communication with the civilized world for this to come as a shocker. The bloodletting of the wireless industry (as well as the overall telecom industry) has been going on for over two-years now. And, there still aren't any real indicators that 3G has an immediate future.

Just recently, the Dutch firm KPN has decided to all but abandon its 3G mobile phone services. This after they posted billion of dollars in net losses for the year.

In Japan, we watched as 3G was constantly delayed as two of the countries telecom giants fought to bring 3G to the Japanese consumer. In the end only NTT DoCoMo roled out 3G. But, only on a limited basis.

Furthermore, Vodaphone, already in a weak financial position has delayed it's decision to launch 3G services in Ireland — the hits just keep coming.

Take off the shades — There is a song I know, by a group called Timbuk 3, whose title is “The future's so bright I gotta wear shades.” I used to think that was 3G's mantra. Now it appears it may be 3G's swan song. I've said it before, I'll say it again — It's time for the whole world to get realistic about the future of wireless interconnect.

It's becoming a common sense issue. Over the years I've discussed the many shortcomings of wireless communications. You know, system and carrier interoperability, non-ubiquitous coverage, multiple proprietary encoding/modulation technologies…etc. And, I've always said the magic in making any future wireless systems interoperate is some sort of glue technology or a standard platform. Well, it hasn't happened and 3G is quickly becoming an afterthought.

Add to that the evolution and implementation of parallel technologies (WLANs, Bluetooth, WiFi, Home RF,) that can (and are) doing much of what 3G was supposed to do, although on a less global scale. Furthermore, consider the embarrassing bit rates of wireless data over the mobile phone infrastructure and thing get even more depressing.

“The future of 3G” — What a statement! Quite frankly, there is a 3G in the future. I think everyone involved in the wireless industry believes that. The real question is when and what. We have to get real and take our lumps. We have to get a grip on what the end user wants (and stop looking at NTT DoCoMo as anything other than a novelty). The infrastructure has to get built out before the masses will buy into it. We learned that lesson with 2G. And we have to make the technology and interface user friendly and a no-brainer.

We should learn our lessons from past mistakes like the infamous VHS/Betamax wars. But we may never learn. Witness the current SACD and DVD-audio wars and the competing DVD-RAM/R and DVD+RW technologies.

Competition is good. But maybe…just maybe, somethings should be a monopoly — at least for now.