As the WiMAX forum gathers more members and the technology gears up to begin certification and interoperability testing later in the year in conformance to IEEE 802.16a, WiMAX is getting ready to deliver broadband on a wide scale. In fact, the 802.16 standard today is analogous to wireless LAN (WLAN) technology of the late 1990s, when the market finally grew as 802.11. Price vs. performance gains converted WLAN from a niche to a mass market. In the near future, 802.16 is expected to achieve similar prominence, according to a study compiled by market research firm Visant Strategies based in Kings Park, N.Y.

“Under the current conditions, 802.16 could emulate 802.11's rise several years from now,” said Visant Strategies' senior analyst Andy Fuertes and author of the study, 802.16/WiMAX Technologies: World Market Forecasts 2003-2009. “Many chip and equipment vendors ignored the chance to get into the 802.11 market early and create market share. WiMAX offers these technology companies a fresh start.”

The IEEE 802.16 is considered the next step beyond WiFi because it is optimized for broadband operation, fixed and later mobile, in the wide-area network. It already includes numerous advances that are slated for introduction into the 802.11 standard, such as quality of service, enhanced security, higher data rates, and mesh and smart antenna technology allowing for better use of the spectrum.

The study finds WiMAX and WiFi complementary as the two technologies address different segments of the market and are optimized for different tasks; local vs. metropolitan-area networking. Last-mile access will be the first application for 802.16, but mobility will follow via 802.16e, predicts the Visant report. WiMAX is considered a migration path to 4G, but more likely to be used by holders of broadband wireless access (BWA) spectrum rather than mobile carriers, added Fuertes. 802.16 is also expected to play a role in outdoor and private networks, the extension of hot spots, and backhaul applications that lack line-of-sight.

The opportunity for 802.16 equipment is forecast to reach a value of approximately $2.2 billion in 2009, the study finds, with growth accelerating late in the period. The study provides global forecasts for 802.16 equipment and chipset shipments and revenues as well as the technology's penetration in the overall global BWA market.

For additional information, visit www.Visantstrategies.com.