Some of the largest lamp bulb manufacturers have become convinced that the LED will soon supplant both incandescent and compact fluorescent lamps for illumination. In fact, the nation’s big three of lighting — General Electric, Osram Sylvania and Royal Philips Electronics — are embracing a new era of more efficient technologies. Encouraged by legislation and the rising cost of energy, as well as concerns about greenhouse gases, consumers are swapping out incandescent bulbs.

And though compact fluorescents are beginning to replace standard light bulbs in many homes, lighting executives see this as an interim technology. They say the large size of the fluorescent bulbs, the inability to dim many of them, the unpleasant color of the light and the five milligrams of mercury in each will limit their appeal.

"We are not spending one dollar on research and development for compact fluorescents,” said Kaj den Daas, chairman and chief executive of Philips Lighting. Instead, the bulk of its R & D budget, which is 5.2 percent of the company’s global lighting revenue, is for LED research. Philips is betting the store on the LED, which it expects to represent 20 percent of its professional lighting revenue in two years.

Typically, today's compact fluorescent bulb uses about 20 percent of the energy needed for a standard incandescent lamp bulb to create the same amount of light. Today’s LED’s use about 15 percent. Next-generation LED lamps, still in the laboratory will do even better.

In one case, by lighting all of the building’s exterior and most of its interior with LEDs, a company spent $12,000 more than the $6000 needed to light the facility with a mixture of incandescent and fluorescent bulbs. But by using LEDs, the company is saving $7000 a year in energy costs and will not need to change a bulb for 20 years. It expects to recoup its additional investment in less than two years.

But the incandescent manufacturers face a tough problem. Their businesses were built on customers who regularly replaced light bulbs. How do you make a profit when new lighting may commonly last 50 to 100 times as long as a standard bulb?

A standard 60-watt incandescent usually costs less than $1.00. An equivalent compact fluorescent is about $2. But in Europe this September, Philips, the Dutch company dealing in consumer electronics, health care machines and lighting, is to introduce the Ledino, its first LED replacement for a standard incandescent. Priced at $107 a piece, it is not likely to have more than a few takers.

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