On Aug. 31, a Lockheed Martin anti-ballistic PAC-3 successfully intercepted a test missile, followed on Sept.1 by the successful launch by Boeing of a missile from Vandenberg Air base, which intercepted a missile fired from Alaska. Despite these successes just what they mean with regard to their efficacy in the event of a surprise missile attack is uncertain.

Comprehensive evaluation has never been easy and that is still the case today. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld did attempt to reassure critics by calling for a full end-to-end test during a visit in August to military facilities in Alaska. But even if all the various antiballistic missile systems work as planned, they still wouldn't be able to defend the United States against a large-scale nuclear attack by a major power. These two systems are only intended to insulate the United States from an isolated attack by a rogue country — such as North Korea, which at this time has few nuclear weapons and relatively unsophisticated decoys. Since the Boeing and Lockheed systems have been developed to combat different types of attacks, they thereby comprise a suite of ballistic missile defense systems.

This is about as close as we can come to an end-to-end test of our long-range missile defense system said Lt. Gen. Henry Trey Obering, head of the Missile Defense Agency, at a press conference shortly after a Boeing Co. system intercepted its target in space. The Sept. 1 test was a particularly significant for Boeing's Ground-Based Midcourse Defense program because of the program's two test failures last year.

In the Aug. 31 launch, Lockheed Martin Corp.'s (LMT) new Patriot Advanced Capability-3, or PAC-3, missile successfully intercepted and destroyed a short-range ballistic missile target. The test took place at New Mexico's White Sands Missile Range, giving its PAC-3 system a record of 19 successes out of 22 flight tests, so far.

Whereas on the following day, in the Boeing test of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system, it began when a long-range ballistic missile target lifted off from the Kodiak launch complex in Alaska. Seventeen minutes later, military operators launched an interceptor from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California that culminated with the downing of the missile target.

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