With competitive pressure building from mobile WiMAX and ultramobile broadband (UMB), supporters at the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) are looking beyond the current 3G wireless technologies, such as wideband CDMA (W-CDMA), which were developed for a mixture of voice and data communications over the same wireless network. In fact, experts believe that even recent improvements to W-CDMA, such as high-speed packet access (HSPA), are not sufficient enough to keep the momentum going. While HSPA technology has enhanced 3G networks' peak speed to 14.4 Mbps for downlinks and 5.76 Mbps for uplinks, to give mobile phones the capability to browse or download music or provide interactive video like laptops and PCs, a dramatic boost in data rate is required.

Hence, significant enhancements are under way. The result is long-term evolution (LTE) or 3G LTE. Some call it 4G, but to others it is a version of 4G. That means 4G is going to see many forms and will be around for a long time. A timeline generated by Texas Instruments shows that prototype systems emerging later in the year, with field trials expected at the end of 2008. Real-world networks are scheduled for deployment in 2010, while commercial availability is slated for 2011.

Meanwhile, standard ratification efforts are in progress. Consequently, to give mobile phones a competitive edge, proponents are pushing its ability to handle video services and user interactivity over the same cellular networks. For that, the goal is to propel data-rate targets to new heights. To reach broadband-class data rates, like 100 Mbps for downlinks and 50 Mbps for uplinks, LTE is undergoing a major shift in wireless communications. One change that will enable these increased speeds is the transformation of the network into an all-data packet network that uses VoIP for voice traffic.

As the wireless broadband access competition is expected to get intense with time, the GSM Association has commissioned research firm Arthur D Little to prepare an unbiased report that assesses the limitations and achievements of 3G HSPA and WiMAX. For this independent study, prepared by Arthur D Little in collaboration with Altran Telecoms & Media and Praxis, the research company interviewed 31 HSPA and WiMAX equipment vendors, operators running the networks, government regulators and financial investors around the globe.

The Arthur D Little findings indicate that HSPA will account for the majority of mobile broadband networks worldwide over the next five years, while mobile WiMAX is a competitive technology for selection by operators over this period in only a limited number of circumstances where conditions are favorable. The findings show that there are 93 commercial HSDPA networks in operation today, while the first commercial mobile WiMAX networks are expected to enter service during 2007. In the long term, mobile broadband wireless systems will be characterized by technologies such as OFDMA and MIMO whose development is being actively pursued throughout the industry and are part of the evolution path for both WiMAX and 3GPP.

While first-generation mobile WiMAX systems are expected to achieve significantly greater data transfer rates than today's HSPA networks, mobile WiMAX cells supporting these higher data rates will tend to be notably smaller, at only one-half to one-quarter the cell radius of the equivalent HSPA cell, the report explained. Reasonable trade-offs between range and throughput, which effectively eliminate WiMAX's speed advantage are likely to involve a relative CAPEX disadvantage for WiMAX of around 20% to 50%.

The research findings show that CAPEX for current WiMAX technology would be increased by up to five to10 times to achieve maximum theoretical WiMAX throughput. Furthermore, it indicates that early-generation mobile WiMAX systems are less capable in terms of voice traffic capacity, limiting the size of the markets and scope of user needs they can address.

However, as 3G adoption evolves, mobile WiMAX will also get better. But, time will tell if 3G LTE will drive consumers to use their mobile devices for broadband wireless access applications and give competing technologies a run for their money.

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